A systemic filter applied to all layer scores. Reflects the overall macro environment for AI investments today.
Risk-On — no risk signal and at most one neutral one. Scores at full strength. Neutral — some macro stress. Scores dampened. Risk-Off — broad macro stress. Scores dampened strongly.
Rule applied: Risk-Off (scores × 0.65) needs two risk signals: VIX above 30, 10Y yield up more than 100 bps over 20 sessions, NASDAQ more than 5 percentage points behind the S&P 500 over its last 20 closes. Neutral (× 0.85) needs one risk signal or two neutral ones: VIX above 20, yield up more than 50 bps, NASDAQ more than 2 percentage points behind. Otherwise Risk-On (× 1.00). A missing signal doesn't vote.
Where AI capex typically flows · general context, not this quarter's allocation
Accelerators and servers → Semicon, HBM memory
Networking, cooling, racks → Data center
Buildings and power → Data center, Energy
Cloud is the spender · AI software and security aren't direct recipients
Reported cash capex, backward-looking · context only, not part of any score
Details
Capex is a demand signal for the whole chain. It doesn't show which layer needs the most, and it isn't part of any score. The supply side is the highest-scoring of Energy, Semicon, HBM memory and Data center today.
Company guidance isn't included. Figures are cash capex as filed with the SEC; headline figures in company releases or the press can differ, for example by including finance leases. The four hyperscalers' last reported quarters are summed and compared with the same quarters a year earlier; a company without the comparable quarter is named and left out.
AI value chain — signal scores
Hot / bottleneckEmergingNeutral / healthyCooling
Data: close of Friday, October 30 · fetched 11:58 UTC · Quarterly financials are the latest reported quarter and can be several months old
Methodology change after the Oct 23 close: Revenue growth is now true year-over-year (each quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier), with SEC filings filling quarters Yahoo Finance lacks. HBM memory's earlier Red rested on a 2-quarter calculation; colour changes since then reflect the fix, not a market move.
About this dashboard
A daily signal dashboard tracking the AI supply chain — from power plants to software — identifying where investment opportunities and risks are building.
🔴 Hot / Bottleneck
Strongest bottleneck signal: layer score above 65. Colours hold until the score moves 10 points past the threshold.
🟠 Emerging
Building momentum toward a bottleneck: layer score 45–65.
🟢 Neutral / Healthy
Layer score 25–45. Growing, no strong bottleneck signal.
🔵 Cooling
Layer score below 25, or year-over-year revenue growth down more than 5 points at every company in the layer.
Warning flags
⚡ Narrative ahead of fundamentals — The layer's top-scoring company is in the news, but its revenue growth is slowing or barely accelerating.
hype badge on a company — Price up more than 15% in 30 days while revenue grows under 10%, or more than 20 points ahead of its layer peers while revenue growth slows, or up 15% or more and at least 10 points ahead of the NASDAQ while year-over-year revenue growth fell more than 5 points. Lowers that company's rating to C. It doesn't change the layer's colour.
revenue up, price down badge on a company — Revenue YoY accelerated more than 5 percentage points last quarter while the price fell 15% or more in 30 days and at least 10 points more than the NASDAQ. Two readings: the market may be pricing a risk that reported revenue doesn't show yet, or the price may have fallen further than the revenue trend implies. Not a recommendation. It changes no score, colour or rating.
Data sources (updated daily)
Stock prices & fundamentals — Yahoo Finance · News signals — CNBC, MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance company headlines · AI analysis — Google Gemini 2.5
Quarterly financials are the latest reported quarter and can be several months old · Not financial advice · Always do your own research
Signal heat trail
Daily analysis — Gemini 2.5-flash · 11:58
🚀 RayDar — Next Nvidia Top 5 today
Multi-quarter acceleration
Ranked by multi-quarter revenue acceleration (year-over-year growth, each quarter vs the one before),
latest growth, gross margin, analyst coverage and price momentum. Only companies with 6+ quarters of revenue are ranked.
· Lower analyst coverage scores higher; this dashboard hasn't tested whether that predicts returns.
🃏WILDCARD— under the radar
📊 SIGNAL TRACK RECORD — last 5
Return from the close of the session a signal was first shown to the close of its last session (or the latest close while active),
split-adjusted, against the NASDAQ over the same sessions. Not a trading record. Not financial advice.
How to read this dashboardmethodology
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What the colors mean
Red — current bottleneck
Layer score above 65 (market-cap weighted), held above 55 on 2 of the last 3 sessions. A score above 80 turns Red at once. The strongest bottleneck signal in the chain right now.
Orange — emerging
Layer score 45–65: building momentum toward a bottleneck.
Green — neutral / healthy
Layer score 25–45: growing, no strong bottleneck signal.
Blue — cooling
Layer score below 25, or year-over-year revenue growth down more than 5 points at every company in the layer.
Colours are held: a layer keeps its colour from recent sessions until its score moves more than
10 points past that colour's threshold (Red holds down to 55, Orange down to 35), so a layer can
show a colour outside its score band.
Note on AI Security layer: Security companies (CRWD, PANW, S, OKTA) are steady
compounders, not hardware bottlenecks. A Blue/Green Security layer is normal and
healthy. Watch for Orange/Red only during major breach cycles or regulatory shifts.
News headline velocity Capex vs operating cash flow
S
Smart money
Volume vs average Analyst buy ratings (30 days) Short interest level Price momentum
Fundamental override: A company whose year-over-year revenue growth fell more than 5 points between its last two quarters has its growth score capped, so it can't score Red on its own. A layer turns Blue when that holds for every company in it.
This summary describes methodology categories only. Not financial advice.